The Sidelines are Crowded: A Window of Opportunity
Auctioneer Jack Harris at an auction 56 Cam Street, Cambridge Park
The Australian property market has always been defined by its resilience, but the current landscape is particularly unique. To understand our present, we must look at the data: the last time we saw a cash rate of 4.35% alongside 3.3% inflation was during the 2023–2024 recovery. Despite widespread predictions of a downturn, prices rose 9% in 2023, driven by a chronic supply shortage that outweighed the impact of rising mortgage repayments.
The Supply-Demand Divergence
We are currently navigating a significant supply gap. In the 2025–26 financial year, Australia added 260,000 people through overseas migration—a surge roughly equivalent to the population of Hobart. With national building targets sitting between 160,000 and 170,000 new homes annually, the math is simple: demand is vastly outstripping supply.
A Two-Speed Market
As some lenders forecast rates reaching 4.85%, we are observing a distinct shift in market dynamics:
Premium Tiers: The upper quartile ($2.3m+) in premium suburbs like the Eastern Suburbs and Northern Beaches are seeing moderate to negative growth as buyers become more sensitive to price ceilings.
Affordability Hubs: Conversely, the lower quartile ($1.2m and below) particularly in Western Sydney, remains highly resilient as buyers "re-tier" their expectations to maintain affordability.
The Auction Floor Reality
Over the past six weeks, I have observed a recurring phenomenon on the auction floor: the crowded sideline. We are seeing healthy registrations, yet many buyers remain frozen by hesitation. They attend, they register, but they fail to raise their paddle on a home they genuinely want.
As an auctioneer, I can tell you that the most advantageous time to negotiate is on auction day. It is the only moment where the agent, vendor, and buyer are all present and motivated to reach a resolution. While others wait for "perfect" conditions that may never arrive, the strategic buyer recognizes that hesitation from the crowd creates a vacuum of opportunity.
As Robert Kiyosaki famously noted: “The sidelines are crowded. Get in the game.”
If you are waiting for the noise to settle, you may find yourself priced out by the next wave of growth. The inventory is tight, the population is growing, and the opportunity to negotiate is now.
